# [24H] Ukraine Likely to Launch Follow-On Drone Salvos at Moscow Refinery Hub Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 4:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T16:41:42.847Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T16:41:42.847Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Moscow region, Central Russia, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic fuel supply, Urals crude differentials, European diesel and gasoline cracks, Russian air defense stockpiles
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13795.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional drone or missile salvo against the already-damaged Moscow refinery complex or adjacent energy infrastructure, exploiting Russian firefighting and repair vulnerabilities. Russian air defenses will probably intercept most inbound drones, but even near-misses risk further fires, debris damage, and psychological pressure on the capital. This will deepen Russian military demand for short‑range air defense and divert assets away from the front, marginally easing pressure on some Ukrainian sectors. Confirmation would be new OSINT footage of launch waves, air-raid activity around Moscow, and satellite/thermal signatures of further explosions at the refinery; denial would be an absence of attempted strikes despite favorable conditions and continued Ukrainian public signaling about future operations.

## Drivers

- Reports of Ukraine’s biggest drone attack on Moscow and explicit intent to keep targeting Russian oil infrastructure
- Confirmed crippling of 100% primary processing capacity at Moscow Oil Refinery and ongoing fire
- Western defense-industrial ramp-up enabling sustained deep-strike operations
- Russian claims of intercepting ~1,000 drones, implying a high operational tempo