# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Raids on Russian Refineries Likely to Continue Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 4:41 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T04:41:44.890Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T04:41:44.890Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Moscow region, Rostov region, Occupied Crimea, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals Crude, Russian diesel exports, Black Sea shipping insurers, Russian domestic fuel distributors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13736.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional long‑range drone strike on Russian fuel infrastructure within 24 hours, targeting refineries, depots, or logistics nodes similar to Kapotnya and Gukovo. Russian air defenses around Moscow and the southwest will be stressed by repeated low‑cost, high‑volume raids, forcing dispersal of interceptors away from the front. This perpetuates a slow‑burn degradation of Russia’s fuel network, with downstream pressure on Russian military logistics and domestic fuel availability. Confirmation would include new fires or damage reports at Russian energy sites and NOTAMs or air‑defense alerts near Moscow, Rostov, or Crimea; denial would be an observable 24‑hour pause with Russian forces instead reporting successful mass interceptions without impacts.

## Drivers

- Multiple consecutive Ukrainian drone strikes on Kapotnya refinery and Rostov fuel base
- Structural Ukrainian campaign trend targeting Russian fuel and logistics
- Russian reporting of continued air and missile strikes in Donbas indicating ongoing high‑tempo war