# [7D] Somali Piracy Risk Zone Widens as MT Honour 25 Hijacking Remains Unresolved

*Issued Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-17T22:42:25.350Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-24T22:42:25.350Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 59% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Gulf of Aden, Somali Basin, Western Indian Ocean, East African Littoral States
**Affected Assets**: Tanker and Bulk Carrier Fleets, Marine War-Risk Insurance, Regional Port and Bunkering Services, Onboard Private Maritime Security Providers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13715.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, if MT Honour 25 remains in pirate hands, at least one additional piracy attempt or boarding in adjacent sea lanes is likely as criminal networks infer weak deterrence. Navies will expand patrol boxes and potentially escort patterns, but capacity constraints will leave soft spots in the western Indian Ocean and off Somalia. The perceived expansion of a permissive environment will drive insurers to revise risk maps, raising premiums for a broader corridor. Confirmation would be another hijacking or credible attempt within the region; denial would be a rapid, visible resolution of the current incident combined with stepped-up naval presence and arrests.

## Drivers

- Existing 50+ day hijacking of MT Honour 25 with heavily armed pirates
- Historical pattern of clustering and copycat attacks around successful hijackings
- Limited regional naval resources amid other global commitments
- Ongoing demand for oil tanker traffic through western Indian Ocean routes