# [7D] Iranian Crude Exports Rebound Toward 2–2.5 Million bpd as Buyers Test Sanctions Relief

*Issued Monday, June 15, 2026 at 4:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-15T16:41:15.229Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-22T16:41:15.229Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, China, India, Europe, Gulf exporters
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC basket, Asian refining margins, OPEC+ quota and compliance dynamics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13461.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Iranian oil exports are likely to climb substantially as major Asian buyers and some European traders increase liftings, testing the durability of US sanctions relief. Tehran will prioritize quick deals with China, India, and potentially Turkey to lock in volume, while Western majors move more cautiously but start exploratory engagement. This supply boost will keep Brent and Dubai under pressure, narrow regional spreads, and erode OPEC+ cohesion as other members fear market-share loss. Confirmation would be satellite and customs data showing a marked rise in Iranian loadings and arrivals; denial would be visible buyer hesitation due to legal or political ambiguity in the MoU.

## Drivers

- US–Iran MoU lifting primary, secondary, and UN sanctions on oil and petrochemicals
- Reports that tankers ‘loaded with oil’ are already moving safely via Hormuz
- Market perception of structurally higher Iranian export capacity