# [24H] Tanker Insurance Premiums Stay Elevated Near Hormuz Despite Political Breakthrough

*Issued Monday, June 15, 2026 at 4:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-15T16:41:15.229Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-16T16:41:15.229Z (19h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, London insurance market, Asian refining hubs, Gulf exporters
**Affected Assets**: Tanker insurance premia, VLCC and product tanker spot rates, Asian refinery margins, Shipping equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13453.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, war-risk and hull insurance premia for ships transiting Hormuz are likely to remain significantly above pre-crisis levels, as underwriters digest the skiff attack and uncertain IRGC security role. Shipowners will factor these costs into freight rates, especially for VLCC and LR2 classes, partially offsetting the bearish impact of added Iranian barrels on delivered crude prices. This will leave refiners and importers, particularly in Asia, with a more modest net price benefit than spot benchmarks suggest. Confirmation would be updated JWC or insurer advisories keeping the area high-risk and sustained elevated premium quotes; denial would be a rapid reclassification of the corridor as standard-risk with commensurate price cuts.

## Drivers

- UKMTO report of tanker fired upon near Hormuz
- US military guidance recently warning ships not to cross the blockade
- Fresh incidents reviving near-term oil and freight risk premiums