# [7D] US–Venezuela Energy Talks Survive Strike Fallout and Move Toward Quiet Sanctions Flexibility

*Issued Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 3:42 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-13T03:42:34.359Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-20T03:42:34.359Z (7d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 62% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Venezuela, United States (Gulf Coast), Caribbean, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Venezuelan Merey and similar heavy crudes, US Gulf Coast refining margins, PDVSA-linked debt and equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13157.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, despite nationalist backlash to the US strike, Washington and Caracas are likely to preserve and cautiously expand energy talks, using security cooperation against Tren de Aragua as leverage for incremental sanctions waivers. The Maduro government will present itself as a stabilizing, ‘reliable supplier’ to attract investment and diversify away from overreliance on a narrow set of buyers. This trajectory could unlock modest new heavy crude flows, particularly to US Gulf Coast refineries, and reorient some regional alliances that had been anchored in anti-US rhetoric. Confirmation would be technical delegations, signals of OFAC licensing flexibility, or pilot cargoes under eased terms; denial would be Caracas suspending talks or the US Congress moving to block any relief.

## Drivers

- Warning of US–Venezuela energy talks highlighting Venezuela as a secure and reliable supplier
- US Southern Command strike killing Niño Guerrero, showing deep security penetration
- Maduro’s interest in sanctions relief and export normalization