# [24H] US–Iran War-End Memorandum Draft Publicly Acknowledged but Not Yet Signed

*Issued Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-12T21:43:20.403Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-13T21:43:20.403Z (21h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: United States, Iran, Gulf Cooperation Council states, Eastern Mediterranean
**Affected Assets**: US secondary sanctions on Iranian oil and banking, Iranian rial (IRR) offshore rates, Gulf sovereign bonds (UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia), Defense sector equities linked to Gulf deployments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13120.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Washington and Tehran are likely to publicly acknowledge a near-final draft of a war-ending memorandum, outlining sanctions relief, frozen asset releases, and Hormuz transit arrangements without fully signing the document. Public confirmation will likely come through coordinated press leaks and cautious statements by senior officials emphasizing progress and remaining technical steps. This will lock in political costs for walking away, while allowing both sides to sustain calibrated coercion for leverage. Disconfirmation would be either categorical denials of any draft text or a surprise immediate signing ceremony with full terms unveiled.

## Drivers

- FLASH reports that US–Iran war-end MoU text is finalized and could be signed within days
- Iranian FM repeatedly describing terms in public, including sanctions relief and Hormuz fees
- UAE already unfreezing $3–20B in Iranian funds in anticipation of the deal
- US signaling de-escalation and naval blockade easing in earlier briefings