# [24H] Iranian Follow-On Missile or Drone Probes Against Israeli Airbases After Ramat David Strike

*Issued Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-12T21:43:20.403Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-13T21:43:20.403Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Israel, Lebanon, Eastern Mediterranean
**Affected Assets**: Israeli Air Force combat readiness, IAF 157th electronic-warfare squadron assets, Eastern Mediterranean commercial aviation routes, Israeli defense equities (IAI, Rafael, Elbit)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13117.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to conduct limited follow-on missile or drone probes against Israeli air facilities or radar/EW nodes to reinforce the message of vulnerability after the Ramat David strike. These will probably be small-scale, precision attacks or attempted penetrations rather than mass salvos, calibrated to maintain leverage while ceasefire diplomacy continues. The targets most at risk are secondary airbases, radar sites, or logistics depots in northern and central Israel. Confirmation would be new intercept activity, impact footage, or Israeli NOTAM/airspace restrictions around airbases; disconfirmation would be a complete halt in cross-border strikes combined with explicit Iranian messaging that the air campaign is over.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Iranian missile strike on Ramat David Airbase targeting EW-linked infrastructure
- Iranian political narrative of having achieved victory after a 40-day war
- Imminent but not yet signed US–Iran war-end MoU, leaving room for last-minute coercive signaling
- Historical Iranian practice of bracketing ceasefire talks with demonstrative strikes