# [24H] Further Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes on Russian Refineries Inside 24 Hours

*Issued Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-12T09:45:21.385Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-13T09:45:21.385Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia-Volga Region, Southern Russia, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, Diesel crack spreads, Russian domestic fuel prices, European middle distillates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13076.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukrainian forces are likely to follow up their successful Tatarstan and Samara strikes with at least one additional long-range UAV attack against Russian refining or petrochemical facilities within the next day. Targets will most likely be high-value refineries or power infrastructure in the Volga region or southern Russia that feed military logistics. This will deepen Russia’s air-defense overstretch, marginally tighten regional fuel availability, and signal Kyiv’s ability to impose costs deep in Russian territory despite battlefield pressure near Kostyantynivka. Confirmation would come from Russian regional emergency reports, social-media videos of refinery fires, and temporary disruptions in local fuel supply; denial would be quiet skies over key facilities plus Russian redeployment of air defenses toward the interior.

## Drivers

- Recent successful Ukrainian drone strikes on TANECO, Nizhnekamskneftekhim, and Tolyattikauchuk
- Emerging trend of systematic Ukrainian deep-strike campaign against Russian energy backbone
- Russia’s ongoing offensive near Kostyantynivka incentivizing Ukraine to hit strategic depth instead of frontal assaults