# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Refineries and Crimean Access

*Issued Friday, June 12, 2026 at 2:27 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-12T02:27:43.582Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T02:27:43.582Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern and Western Russia, Crimea, Eastern and Southern Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Russian Refined Product Exports, Black Sea Shipping Insurance, European Diesel and Jet Fuel Prices, Russian Domestic Fuel Markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13003.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to sustain and broaden its deep-strike campaign, targeting additional Russian refineries, fuel depots, and critical Crimean access points beyond Afipsky and the Armiansk bridge. Russian air defense assets and counter-drone measures will be reallocated to protect industrial nodes, potentially thinning coverage at frontline sectors and exposing troops and logistics. A cumulative impact will emerge in higher domestic Russian fuel prices in affected regions and intermittent export disruptions to the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Confirmation would be multiple new fires or outages at refineries/logistics hubs and increased Russian official complaints about ‘terrorist attacks’; denial would be a notable reduction in Ukrainian strike tempo due to resource constraints or Western pressure.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strike on Afipsky refinery and deep strikes in Zaporizhia and Donetsk rear areas
- Emerging trend describing Ukraine’s systematic extension of deep-strike campaigns
- High-intensity fighting and Russian advances incentivizing asymmetric rear attacks