# [7D] Russia and China Exploit Iran Crisis to Undermine US Gulf Security Leadership

*Issued Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 2:28 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-11T14:28:51.518Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-18T14:28:51.518Z (7d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Gulf Cooperation Council states, Africa, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Yuan- and ruble-denominated oil contracts, Russian and Chinese arms exports, US dollar dominance in energy trade, NATO and US bilateral security agreements
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12947.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Russia and China are likely to step up diplomatic moves framing the US response to Iran as destabilizing, offering themselves as alternative security and energy partners to Gulf and African states. This could include public calls for US restraint, promotion of yuan- or ruble-based energy trade mechanisms, and intensified outreach to OPEC+ members. The narrative campaign will seek to weaken US-led coalitions, encourage hedging behavior, and deepen divisions within NATO and among Asian allies over alignment with Washington’s approach. Confirmation would be coordinated Russia–China statements at the UN, new energy or arms agreements tied to the crisis, and Gulf states’ high-level visits to Moscow or Beijing; denial would be muted responses and explicit support for US actions.

## Drivers

- AFRICOM reporting on Russia–Africa alternatives in great-power competition
- EUCOM noting indirect impacts and Russian force buildup in the Baltics
- Opportunity created by US focus and resource diversion to CENTCOM
- Historical Russian and Chinese use of Middle East crises to advance multipolar messaging