# [24H] Iranian Missile and Drone Retaliation on US Gulf Bases Expected After US Night Strikes

*Issued Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 2:28 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-11T14:28:51.518Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-12T14:28:51.518Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Eastern Saudi Arabia, Persian Gulf airspace
**Affected Assets**: US Patriot and THAAD batteries, US logistics depots and runways, Gulf civil aviation corridors, Energy company compounds near US bases
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12934.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Following any substantial US strikes tonight, Iran is likely to respond within hours with additional ballistic missiles and armed drones targeting US installations and logistics hubs in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, potentially accompanied by harassment fires near US naval vessels. Civilian areas near these bases will face elevated risk of stray impacts, shrapnel damage, and air-defense debris, as already seen in Bahrain. A rapid tit-for-tat cycle will test Patriot and regional air-defense capacity and strain host-nation tolerance for further US operations. Confirmation would be new IRGC announcements of missile barrages, radar tracks of launches from Iran, and intercepts or impacts near known bases; denial would require both a muted US strike package and explicit Iranian messaging framing restraint as strategic.

## Drivers

- IRGC has already fired medium-range ballistic missiles at US bases in three countries
- At least two missiles previously penetrated Patriot defenses at Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base
- Iranian leadership framing conflict as response to US bombings and blockade
- Emerging trend: Iran’s regional strike reach tests US missile defenses and host-nation tolerance