# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign to Additional Russian Refineries and Rail Nodes

*Issued Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 8:28 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-11T08:28:18.627Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-18T08:28:18.627Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Central Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea Region
**Affected Assets**: Russian Refined Product Exports, European Diesel and Fuel Oil Prices, Rail Freight in Southern Russia, Russian Domestic Fuel Availability
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12917.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to broaden its deep-strike campaign beyond Afipsky to hit at least one additional significant Russian refinery or major logistics hub supporting the southern front and Crimea. Kyiv aims to erode Russia’s capacity to supply diesel, ammunition, and reinforcements while also signaling it can hold Russian energy exports at risk. This will increase Russian internal security measures, force air defense redeployments, and may prompt retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy or urban infrastructure. Confirmation would be damage reports at another refinery or rail chokepoint inside Russia proper; denial would be a redirection of Ukrainian long-range strikes away from energy/logistics toward purely military front-line targets.

## Drivers

- Sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Afipsky and other energy assets
- Trend of mutual deep-strike campaigns on energy infrastructure
- Ukrainian targeting of Kherson–Crimea bridges and logistics lines