# [30D] Second-Round Inflation Pressures Build in Food and Transport From Energy Shock

*Issued Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 2:29 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-11T02:29:23.760Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-11T02:29:23.760Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 63% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, soy), Fertilizer producers, Local transport and logistics companies, Sovereign bonds of food-import dependent states
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12903.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, elevated energy prices driven by the Gulf crisis will start to feed into broader inflation through higher transportation and fertilizer costs, pushing up food prices and logistics expenses. Households in low- and middle-income countries will feel the squeeze most acutely, with governments facing pressure to expand subsidies or accept higher inflation. These second-round effects will complicate monetary policy and social stability, especially in fragile economies. Confirmation would be rising food and transport components in CPI data and subsidy announcements; denial would be a rapid drop in energy prices or aggressive policy interventions that cap pass-through.

## Drivers

- Historical pass-through from energy price spikes to broader inflation
- Current high starting point of global food and fertilizer prices
- Potential shipping disruptions raising freight costs