# [24H] Iranian Follow-On Missile and Drone Salvos Against Gulf Bases Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 2:29 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-11T02:29:23.760Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-12T02:29:23.760Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Gulf airspace
**Affected Assets**: U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, Royal Bahraini Air Base, U.S. Fifth Fleet facilities, Regional civilian airports, Gulf aviation insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12872.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to launch at least one additional limited salvo of missiles or drones against U.S. or partner bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Jordan to signal that U.S. strikes on its territory carry ongoing costs. The attacks will probably be calibrated to avoid mass U.S. casualties while still demonstrating reach and resilience after air-defense degradation. This would deepen the live air-defense battle over key hubs and increase the chance of misidentification or debris hitting civilian areas and commercial aviation corridors. Confirmation would be further launch reporting from Khorramabad/Tabriz or coastal batteries plus interceptions or impacts on or near known U.S./GCC facilities; this would be disproven if Tehran publicly signals a halt and ISR shows launch units standing down.

## Drivers

- Documented Iranian missile launches at Jordan and drones at Bahrain in direct response to U.S. strikes
- Iranian doctrine of phased retaliation and signaling under pressure
- U.S. degradation of Iranian air defenses creating strong incentive to demonstrate remaining strike capability