# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign on Russian Refineries and Depots Despite Retaliation

*Issued Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 8:28 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-10T20:28:29.126Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-17T20:28:29.126Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Crimea, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, Russian domestic fuel prices, European diesel imports, Russian rail and logistics networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12857.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming week, Ukraine is likely to sustain or increase drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries, depots, and logistics nodes beyond the front line, prioritizing export-linked facilities. This will strain Russian air defenses and fuel distribution, especially for aviation and armor, while incentivizing Moscow to divert resources from the battlefield. Expect a cat-and-mouse cycle where improved Russian defenses combine with Ukrainian adaptation, raising cumulative infrastructure damage over time. Confirmation would be additional verified hits on Russian oil infrastructure and rail hubs; a sudden Ukrainian pause driven by Western pressure to reduce escalation risks would challenge this prediction.

## Drivers

- Recent successful strikes on Kuibyshev refinery and Ust-Labinsk depot
- Trend of institutionalized Ukrainian unmanned warfare and deep strikes
- Russian bans on fuel exports and infrastructure hardening measures
- Strategic logic to weaken Russian logistics and revenue