# [24H] Ukrainian Deep Strikes on Russian Southern Energy Infrastructure Continue at Lower but Sustained Tempo

*Issued Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:18 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-09T08:18:29.994Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-10T08:18:29.994Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast, Crimea, Southern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Black Sea shipping, Russian domestic fuel market, European diesel crack spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12655.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional drone or missile strikes against Russian energy and logistics nodes in Rostov, Krasnodar, or occupied Crimea, though on a smaller scale than recent salvos. The campaign aims to keep Russian fuel infrastructure under continuous stress, forcing air-defense dispersal and complicating military resupply to southern fronts and Crimea. Strategically, this maintains pressure on Russian domestic fuel availability and Black Sea-linked logistics without immediately altering the front line. Confirmation would be further reports of depot or refinery fires, temporary power outages, or disruptions to rail/road nodes; denial would be a lull coinciding with reported munitions shortages or strong US/EU pressure to limit cross-border strikes.

## Drivers

- Multiple alerts on Ukrainian strikes damaging Novoshakhtinsk refinery and Ust-Labinsk depot
- Reports of repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Crimea energy and logistics infrastructure
- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s shift to a deep-strike campaign against Russian energy and logistics