# [24H] Brent Crude Holds Above $95 as Markets Price Sustained Iran Export and Port Risk

*Issued Monday, June 8, 2026 at 2:18 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-08T02:18:43.407Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-09T02:18:43.407Z (19h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Gulf region, Europe, East Asia, India
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Oil tanker equities, Refining margins (Asia and EU), Energy-importer currencies (INR, JPY, EUR)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12516.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade firmly above $95, with intraday spikes toward or above $98 as traders digest Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and Trump’s port blockade rhetoric. Even if no physical exports are yet blocked, the probability-weighted risk of further attacks or a naval quarantine will keep risk premia elevated. Refiners and importers in Asia and Europe will start to explore alternative sourcing and hedging, with near-dated call options seeing aggressive demand. This forecast would be invalidated by a rapid, credible ceasefire framework explicitly guaranteeing Iranian shipping, which currently appears unlikely.

## Drivers

- Reports of Kharg Island oil terminal and missile site being hit
- Trump publicly touting a blockade of Iranian ports as more powerful than an attack
- Immediate jump in Brent toward $95–$96 already observed