# [7D] Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes Intensify Against Russian Refineries and Oil Logistics

*Issued Wednesday, June 3, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-03T22:39:15.684Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-10T22:39:15.684Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 77% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia (Rostov Oblast), Northwest Russia (St. Petersburg region), Occupied Donbas, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries (Novoshakhtinsk and similar plants), Black Sea product exports, Russia’s internal military fuel logistics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12367.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone or missile strikes on Russian refineries, oil terminals, or fuel logistics nodes, building on the Novoshakhtinsk and St. Petersburg-area attacks. Kyiv will seek to impose cumulative economic pain and constrain Russian military fuel logistics, particularly as ground fighting around Kharkiv and Kupyansk remains intense. Russia may respond with further massed strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, deepening the mutual infrastructure war. Confirmation would be new confirmed hits on Russian energy facilities beyond current ones; a concerted Western push to limit such strikes for escalation control could temper the pace.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strike on Novoshakhtinsk refinery with high-end anti-ship missile
- Drone attacks on St. Petersburg oil terminal and Boyky corvette near Kronstadt
- Trend of intensified deep strikes on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure
- Ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv area creating incentive to hit fuel supply