# [24H] Hezbollah Rocket Fire on Northern Israel Likely to Continue Despite Announced Ceasefire Track

*Issued Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 8:04 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-02T20:04:16.431Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-03T20:04:16.431Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Northern Israel, Southern Lebanon, Beirut Southern Suburbs, Eastern Mediterranean
**Affected Assets**: Leviathan and Tamar Gas Infrastructure Risk Premia, Israeli Shekel (ILS), Lebanese Sovereign and Bank Eurobonds, Regional Defense and Insurance Equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12178.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Hezbollah is likely to maintain at least intermittent rocket or drone launches into northern Israel despite accepting a U.S. proposal for a nationwide ceasefire. The group needs to preserve deterrent credibility with its base and Tehran, and will likely test the boundaries of any emerging truce while bargaining terms of implementation. Continued fire risks localized Israeli counterstrikes, particularly against launch sites and suspected positions around Tyre and southern Lebanon villages, sustaining the chance of accidental escalation. Confirmation would be fresh rocket alerts in northern Israel or IDF strikes after the ceasefire announcement; immediate, verifiable cessation of launches and a visible reduction of Israeli sorties over Lebanon would contradict this forecast.

## Drivers

- Hezbollah official’s public vow not to halt bombardment and refusal to spare Beirut stronghold
- Simultaneous report that Hezbollah has accepted a U.S.-brokered nationwide cessation of hostilities
- Ongoing Hezbollah presence and concealment activity reported in Tyre’s Christian quarter