# [7D] Ukraine Expands Drone Campaign on Russian Refineries to Sustain Pressure on Fuel Exports

*Issued Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 2:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-02T14:07:32.614Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-09T14:07:32.614Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Black Sea region, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, Brent Crude, Russian domestic fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/12157.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone attacks on Russian refineries and related fuel infrastructure, building on recent successes at Ilsk and Volgograd. By disabling more refining capacity, Kyiv aims to constrain Russian military fuel supplies, raise domestic discontent over product shortages, and reduce export revenue funding the war. This will force Moscow to divert air defense assets from the front and consider harsher retaliation, raising escalation risks including deeper strikes on Ukraine’s own energy network. Confirmation would be credible reports of further refinery fires or shutdowns in southern or central Russia; denial would require a marked lull in Ukrainian deep strikes despite opportunity.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed hits on Ilsk and Volgograd refineries
- Emerging trend of Ukraine normalizing precision infrastructure attacks for leverage
- EU and NATO tolerating, even tacitly supporting, deep strikes on Russian energy nodes