# [30D] Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign Likely to Impose Persistent 5–10% Hit on Russian Refining Through Summer

*Issued Friday, May 29, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-29T22:35:32.616Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-28T22:35:32.616Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: European Russia, Black Sea region, Eastern and Central Europe
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, European diesel crack spreads, Rail and trucking sectors in Russia, Energy-intensive industries in Russia and CIS
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11619.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, Ukraine’s expanding use of long-range drones, remote mining, and sabotage is likely to inflict recurring disruptions leading to an effective 5–10% temporary loss of Russian refining capacity at any given time. Russia will manage to reroute some crude and increase exports of unrefined barrels, but refined product availability for domestic consumption and regional exports will tighten. The Kremlin may respond with intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy and grid infrastructure, including near the western border, elevating risks for neighboring NATO states. Confirmation would be repeated fires and downtime at multiple refineries, export data shifts, and Russian import or ration measures; denial would be a sustained lull in reported refinery hits and stable fuel output.

## Drivers

- Mass Ukrainian drone waves targeting refineries, including towards Yaroslavl
- Recent strike on Volgograd energy targets
- Trend: Ukraine expands deep-strike campaign against rear infrastructure
- Evidence of Ukraine’s defense industrialization and Western airpower integration