# [7D] South China Sea Jamming Incidents Likely to Expand to Allied Aircraft Overflights

*Issued Friday, May 29, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-29T22:35:32.616Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-05T22:35:32.616Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: South China Sea, Paracel and Spratly Islands, Southeast Asian airspace
**Affected Assets**: Regional airlines and aviation insurers, Naval and ISR platforms of NATO and partners, Shipping transiting disputed waters
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11612.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming week, the PLA is likely to extend electronic jamming beyond naval targets to affect communications and navigation of allied maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft conducting overflights near the Paracels and Spratlys. This pattern will test NATO and partner resolve, particularly of smaller European navies and air forces experimenting with Indo-Pacific deployments. The risk of an aviation incident, forced diversion, or near miss will increase, potentially triggering emergency diplomatic protests and calls for updated EW rules of engagement among allies. Confirmation would be pilot reports and NOTAMs referencing GPS or comms interference in the area; denial would be a marked reduction in PLA EW activity despite allied presence.

## Drivers

- PLA use of electronic jamming on Dutch frigate’s helicopter near Paracels
- INDOPACOM assessment of elevated tensions
- China’s pattern of incremental expansion of coercive tactics against foreign assets
- Growing NATO and European presence in Indo-Pacific freedom-of-navigation operations