# [24H] Further limited Iranian missile or drone launches toward US-linked targets in Kuwait or northern Gulf

*Issued Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 7:55 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-28T19:55:47.455Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T19:55:47.455Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kuwait, Northern Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz approaches, Eastern Saudi Arabia
**Affected Assets**: US military installations in Kuwait, Patriot and THAAD batteries, US and allied ISR assets (MQ-9), Nearby oil export terminals
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11449.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Iran or IRGC-linked forces are likely to conduct at least one additional limited missile or drone action toward US-linked or coalition targets in Kuwait or the northern Gulf, calibrated to avoid mass casualties. The reported SRBM strike on Ali Al-Salem Airbase and claims of downed MQ-9s indicate an ongoing tit-for-tat cycle following the alleged US strike near Bandar Abbas. Tehran will seek to signal capability and resolve while staying below a threshold that would justify a large-scale US response, especially while a ceasefire MoU is pending. Activity could take the form of one or several missile launches, one-way drones, or publicly telegraphed "warning" shots.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Iranian SRBM launches at Ali Al-Salem Airbase and Kuwaiti interception reports
- IRGC public claim of strike on a US base in retaliation for earlier US action near Bandar Abbas
- Satellite imagery showing Iran withdrawing missiles from underground stockpiles, proving preserved capacity
- Fragile and not-yet-signed 60-day US–Iran ceasefire MoU incentivizing calibrated coercion