# [24H] Disruptions to Ebola Response and Civilian Protection in Eastern DR Congo Worsen

*Issued Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 7:55 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-28T07:55:49.628Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T07:55:49.628Z (21h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern DR Congo, Border areas with Rwanda and Uganda
**Affected Assets**: WHO and NGO field teams, Local health centers and cold chain infrastructure, Cross-border health screening facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11386.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, active conflict in eastern DR Congo will further impede access for WHO and humanitarian teams responding to the Ebola outbreak, leading to missed contact tracing windows and delayed isolation of suspected cases. Fighting will push civilians to move along informal routes, complicating surveillance and increasing risk of wider geographic spread. Aid operations may temporarily suspend in the most insecure zones, focusing on remote coordination rather than field presence. This will increase near-term risk of localized outbreak expansion.

## Drivers

- AFRICOM assessment highlighting ‘catastrophic’ convergence of conflict and Ebola outbreak
- Direct WHO warning that fighting is impeding containment operations
- Historical linkage between insecurity and epidemic spread in eastern Congo
- Lack of robust state presence in many affected areas