# [24H] Gold and USD remain supported by Middle East and Russia–Ukraine escalation risks

*Issued Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 2:04 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-27T02:04:33.161Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-28T02:04:33.161Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, United States, Europe, Middle East
**Affected Assets**: Gold, US dollar index, US Treasuries (long end), VIX and global equity volatility instruments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11218.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next day, gold prices and the US dollar are likely to stay bid or strengthen modestly as safe-haven demand persists due to simultaneous tensions in the Gulf, Levant, and Ukraine. Fed commentary linking a potential Iran war to future rate hikes reinforces the sensitivity of monetary policy to geopolitical shocks and supports the dollar via higher risk-premium expectations. Any oil pullback on MoU optimism will not fully offset broader risk aversion given active drone and missile warfare in multiple theaters. Equity volatility may tick higher but remain below crisis levels.

## Drivers

- Fed’s Kashkari flagging an Iran war as a possible driver of future rate hikes
- IRGC claims of downing US MQ-9 and firing on F-35 near Hormuz
- Escalating Israel–Hezbollah conflict and Russia–Ukraine deep-strike campaigns