# [7D] Increased Volatility in US Rates and Gold on Fed War-Risk Signaling and Energy Shocks

*Issued Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 8:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-26T20:09:01.398Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-02T20:09:01.398Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: United States, Global Financial Markets
**Affected Assets**: US Treasuries, Fed Funds Futures, Gold, Oil-Linked Equities and HY Credit
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11198.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, US interest-rate markets and gold prices are likely to become more volatile as investors reassess the Fed reaction function to potential Iran-related oil shocks. Kashkari’s explicit linkage of a prolonged Iran war to a 'series' of rate hikes will encourage markets to price in a fatter tail for higher-for-longer rates if crude holds above recent ranges. Gold will benefit as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks, whereas longer-dated Treasuries could experience intermittent sell-offs. A contrarian outcome—if Iran–US tensions de-escalate—would see some unwinding of this premium.

## Drivers

- Fed’s Kashkari warning Iran war could trigger multiple rate hikes
- Rising oil risk premium from Hormuz incidents and Russian product export bans
- Historical pattern of gold and rates volatility in response to Mideast shocks
- Uncertainty over US–Iran negotiations and Gulf shipping security