# [24H] Continued U.S.–IRGC Naval and Missile Skirmishes Around Hormuz and Gulf of Oman

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T23:09:23.755Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-26T23:09:23.755Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Southern Iran coast (Hormozgan Province), Adjacent Gulf waters of Oman/UAE
**Affected Assets**: US Navy surface combatants, IRGC Navy fast attack craft, Regional commercial shipping and tankers, Maritime insurance and shipping rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11075.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, limited but intense exchanges between U.S. and IRGC naval and missile forces are likely to continue around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, including further anti-ship missile launches, drone downings, and precision strikes on fast boats or coastal batteries. Both sides will aim to avoid mass-casualty events or the loss of a major warship while signaling resolve. Activity will likely concentrate near Larak Island, off Bandar Abbas, and in international waters east of Hormuz. Rules of engagement will remain aggressive but calibrated to avoid hitting large commercial tankers directly.

## Drivers

- Multiple flash alerts of IRGC anti-ship missile launches at US warships in Gulf of Oman
- Recent US and possible US–Israeli airstrikes on IRGC speedboats near Larak Island and Bandar Abbas
- CENTCOM threat level raised to CRITICAL with emphasis on ongoing clashes
- No indication of an immediate ceasefire mechanism at sea despite nuclear-file softening