# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Systematic Strikes on Russian Refineries and Oil Logistics in Southern and Western Russia

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T17:09:14.265Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-01T17:09:14.265Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Samara Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Rostov region, Occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery infrastructure, Fuel depots and rail logistics for the Russian Armed Forces, Russian domestic fuel market balances
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11058.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct further drone and missile attacks against at least two additional Russian refineries, depots, or rail hubs handling fuel, particularly in the Volga, Bryansk, and Rostov–Donetsk corridors. The confirmed month-plus outage at Syzran and hits on Belets depot and Debaltseve fuel trains show growing capability and doctrinal focus on Russia’s energy spine. Kyiv views these attacks as one of the few asymmetric levers to counter Russian massed fires. Russia may respond with enhanced air defense deployments and information operations, but full protection of dispersed infrastructure is improbable.

## Drivers

- Emerging and sustained trends on Ukraine targeting Russian energy/logistics
- Recent hits on refineries, depots, pumping stations, radar, and fuel trains
- Ukraine’s stated goal to degrade Russia’s war economy and logistic depth