# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone and Missile Strikes Continue Against Russian Energy and Logistics Nodes

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T17:09:14.265Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-26T17:09:14.265Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Bryansk Oblast, Samara Oblast, Moscow region, Russia–Ukraine border regions
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic fuel logistics, Russian refinery and depot infrastructure, Seaborne Russian product export flows (indirect), European diesel and gasoil crack spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11049.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional drone or missile strike against Russian energy infrastructure or logistics hubs in western or southern Russia. The recent hits on the Syzran refinery, Belets oil depot in Bryansk, and an oil pumping station feeding Moscow indicate a deliberate campaign that is unlikely to pause despite Russian escalation. Ukraine will prioritize high-visibility targets that impact Russian fuel flows and military rail throughput. Russian air defenses may intercept some strikes, but at least limited physical damage or operational disruption at one site is probable.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Ukraine systematically targeting Russian refineries and depots
- Confirmed outages at Syzran and Belets showing operational success
- Strategic objective to degrade Russian war economy and logistics