# [24H] Brent and Urals Crude Extend Downside Drift on Hormuz Progress

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T11:09:28.401Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-26T11:09:28.401Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Major importing economies (EU, China, India)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Urals Crude, Tanker freight rates in the Gulf, Energy equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11026.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Global oil benchmarks, particularly Brent and Urals, are likely to trade modestly lower or consolidate near current reduced levels over the next 24 hours as markets price in growing odds of a Hormuz normalization within 30 days. With Brent already down over 2% on US–Iran deal momentum and explicit signals that Iranian barrels could return, traders will discount near-term Gulf disruption risk. Downside will be partially capped by residual political uncertainty and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Levant. Volatility may increase around any fresh statements from Tehran or Washington that alter perceived deal odds.

## Drivers

- Reports of a preliminary US–Iran deal and a 30-day timeline to normalize Hormuz traffic
- Statements that Iran will not impose tolls and that management provisions are omitted
- Observed intraday drop in Brent over 2% on deal-related headlines