# [30D] High Risk of Limited but Visible Iran–US or Proxy Skirmish in the Gulf

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T05:08:57.153Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-24T05:08:57.153Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Northern Arabian Sea, Gulf littoral states
**Affected Assets**: US and allied naval vessels, Commercial tankers and LNG carriers, Regional air and missile defense installations
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11012.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 30 days, there is a substantial risk of at least one limited kinetic incident involving Iranian forces or proxies and US or allied assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz—such as drone shootdowns, warning shots, or temporary seizure/boarding of a commercial vessel. The combination of Iran’s restored missile capabilities, leadership isolation, and hardline rhetoric under an unstable negotiating framework increases the likelihood of miscalculation or deliberate signaling. Both sides will aim to contain escalation, but the incident will reinforce risk premia in Gulf security assessments.

## Drivers

- Reactivation of Larestan missile base and restoration of other underground facilities
- Reports of Khamenei’s isolation and public threats of a 'fourth battle'
- Fragile US–Iran MoU talks over Hormuz and HEU, with conflicting public messaging and Trump’s 'no rush' stance