# [24H] Iranian Missile Forces Shift to High-Alert Posture Without Immediate Gulf Kinetic Action

*Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-25T05:08:57.153Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-26T05:08:57.153Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Southern Iran, Gulf littoral states
**Affected Assets**: US and allied naval assets in CENTCOM AOR, Regional oil and LNG export terminals
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10995.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Iran’s Larestan underground missile base reactivation will translate into a heightened alert status and dispersal of missile units but is unlikely to produce immediate missile launches against Gulf targets in the next 24 hours. Tehran appears to be using restored missile readiness as leverage in ongoing Hormuz and nuclear negotiations, signaling deterrence while holding back overt escalation pending leadership decisions. Limited skirmishes or drone flights near the Gulf are possible but large-scale kinetic action remains constrained in this window.

## Drivers

- Reporting that Larestan underground missile base has returned to operation
- Trend: US–Iran Hormuz negotiations create unstable interim order under hard red lines
- Intelligence that Khamenei is isolated and rhetoric about a 'fourth battle' is hardening