# [24H] Crude Oil Benchmarks Trade Volatile But Net Flat-to-Slightly Lower on Hormuz Deal Hopes and Uncertainty

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T23:09:16.531Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T23:09:16.531Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf exporters, Major importers (EU, China, India)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Oil futures volatility indices, Energy equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10966.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI are likely to experience intraday volatility but close within roughly ±2% of current levels, with a slight downward bias as markets price in partial progress toward a Hormuz reopening and HEU disposal. Headlines about an agreement in principle and a 30-day Hormuz reopening plan will compress the extreme tail-risk premium, while countervailing reports of MoU crisis and maintained blockade keep traders cautious. Options skew will remain elevated as participants hedge against both a sudden breakthrough and a breakdown.

## Drivers

- Multiple alerts on Iran signaling 30-day Hormuz reopening and HEU disposal
- Simultaneous warnings that US–Iran MoU is near collapse and blockade stays
- Explicit statement that mere emergence of a framework is 'bearish near term' for crude risk premium
- High sensitivity of oil markets to Gulf security headlines