# [7D] Incremental Expansion of Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes on Russian Refineries and Fuel Nodes

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T17:09:05.531Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-31T17:09:05.531Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and central Russia, Border-adjacent Russian regions near Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries (Ryazan and others), Pipeline pumping stations, Rail fuel depots
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10943.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to continue and modestly expand its long-range UAV and missile attacks on Russian refined-product infrastructure and fuel logistics, building on the Ryazan refinery strike and the recent hit on a central Russia fuel-pumping station. Targets will prioritize high-leverage nodes feeding military districts and export routes. While the absolute physical impact on Russian total fuel output will remain limited, psychological and logistical effects will be significant, forcing Russia to divert resources to air defense and repair.

## Drivers

- Sustained emerging trend of Ukrainian mass UAV pressure on Russian rear infrastructure
- OSINT on Ryazan’s near-total outage following prior strike
- Recent confirmed strike on fuel-pumping station feeding central Russia and Moscow