# [24H] Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage in Ukraine Increase Modestly After New Strikes

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T17:09:05.531Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T17:09:05.531Z (21h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 77% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Other Ukrainian oblasts hit in recent multi-region strikes
**Affected Assets**: Urban housing, Energy and transport infrastructure, Medical and emergency response systems
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10940.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, additional Russian strikes on Ukrainian urban and dual-use targets are likely to cause a modest rise in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly in Kyiv Oblast and other affected regions. Emergency services will be strained but remain functional, focusing on rescue operations, power restoration, and shelter support. There will be incremental internal displacement from heavily targeted areas, though not on a scale matching earlier phases of the war.

## Drivers

- Warnings of Russia transitioning to saturation multi-vector strikes on Kyiv’s capital system
- Recent casualties and warehouse fires in Kyiv Oblast
- Emerging trend on contest over legality of dual-use urban targets