# [24H] Iran Keeps NPT Exit Threat as Conditional Leverage, Not Immediate Action

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T17:09:05.531Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T17:09:05.531Z (21h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Vienna (IAEA diplomatic track), UN Security Council diplomatic arena
**Affected Assets**: Global non-proliferation regime credibility, Regional arms control expectations
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10937.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming 24 hours, Iran will continue to brandish the threat of withdrawing from the NPT as conditional deterrent rhetoric tied to any foreign attack in the Strait of Hormuz, but it is very unlikely to initiate a formal withdrawal process now. The NPT threat functions to raise costs for potential strikes and to strengthen Iran’s bargaining position over HEU disposal and sanctions relief. Tehran will likely deploy additional senior voices reinforcing the conditional nature of the threat rather than specifying timelines or procedural steps for withdrawal. This keeps tension elevated without triggering immediate proliferation crisis procedures at the IAEA or UN.

## Drivers

- Multiple warnings quoting Mohsen Rezaee on possible NPT exit only if enemy attacks Hormuz
- Concurrent Iranian interest in HEU disposal framework indicating preference for negotiated outcome
- US insistence on keeping sanctions and blockade until final agreement