# [24H] Ukrainian UAV and Missile Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure Persist at Low Tempo

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T17:09:05.531Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T17:09:05.531Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia (Ryazan, Moscow region), Eastern and southern Ukraine front sectors
**Affected Assets**: Russian fuel pipelines and pumping stations, Russian refineries, Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10935.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional limited UAV or missile attacks against Russian energy or logistics assets, following the pattern of the recent strike on a fuel-pumping station feeding central Russia and the confirmed Ryazan refinery damage. The tempo is expected to be low but symbolically important, aiming to stress Russian domestic fuel logistics and political perceptions of vulnerability. Russia will respond with enhanced air defense and potentially retaliatory intensity in its own strike campaign, but no decisive shift in front-line ground combat is expected in this window.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian claim of long-range attack on fuel-pumping station near Moscow region
- OSINT confirmation that Ryazan refinery is 90–100% offline
- Emerging trend of Ukraine institutionalizing mass UAV warfare against Russian rear