# [7D] Expansion of Ukrainian UAV and Missile Strikes on Russian Oil and Logistics Infrastructure

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T11:09:34.932Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-31T11:09:34.932Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai (Taman, Novorossiysk), Vladimir Oblast, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Occupied Crimea
**Affected Assets**: Russian crude and product export infrastructure in the Black Sea, Fuel storage depots supplying Russian forces in Ukraine, Rail and pipeline nodes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10910.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming 7 days, Ukraine is likely to broaden its deep-strike campaign against Russian oil export terminals, refineries, fuel depots, and logistics hubs, with an emphasis on the Black Sea region and western Russia. Repeated strikes on Tamanneftegaz and the Vtorovo pumping station indicate a clear targeting pattern aimed at raising Russia’s economic and military sustainment costs. As Ukrainian UAV-industrial capacity grows, they can allocate more assets to rear-area harassment while maintaining frontline support. Russian air defenses may adapt by hardening key nodes and increasing intercept rates, potentially shifting Ukrainian focus to a wider set of, and sometimes softer, energy-adjacent infrastructure targets.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: 'Ukraine institutionalizes mass UAV warfare to offset artillery, range, and manpower gaps'
- Multiple confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Russian depots and energy assets in Crimea, Belgorod, Kursk, and Black Sea terminals
- Pattern of strategic reciprocity following large Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities
- Statements that Ukraine seeks to stretch Russian rear-area defenses