# [24H] Near-Term Support for Brent and WTI on Combined Ukraine and Hormuz Risks

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T11:09:34.932Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T11:09:34.932Z (19h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Black Sea region, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf region
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Urals and Russian ESPO pricing differentials, Tanker freight rates (Aframax/Suezmax in Black Sea, VLCC in Gulf)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10903.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI crude benchmarks are likely to trade with a modest upward bias or at least avoid significant declines, as markets price in sustained risk around both Black Sea and Hormuz flows. The Ukrainian strike on the Tamanneftegaz terminal reinforces risk to Russian Black Sea exports, while Iranian ship seizures and uncertainty over the MoU keep the Gulf risk premium elevated. Even though some reporting points to an eventual de-escalatory Hormuz framework, mixed signals and nuclear-file disputes will sustain volatility. A contrarian scenario would be a sudden, credible announcement of a signed maritime MoU, which could trigger a short-term risk-premium compression and brief price dip.

## Drivers

- Warnings highlighting risk premium on Russian Black Sea exports due to Tamanneftegaz strikes
- Multiple alerts of Iran seizing ships amid Hormuz deal headlines
- Emerging trends on 'Global South reorients energy and trade logistics amid Strait of Hormuz instability'
- Conflicting messages on breadth and timing of US–Iran deal keeping uncertainty high