# [24H] Follow-on Russian Missile and Drone Strikes on Ukrainian Urban Centers

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T11:09:34.932Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T11:09:34.932Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Central Ukraine (Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava), Southern Ukraine (Odesa)
**Affected Assets**: Urban energy and power infrastructure in Kyiv region, Ukrainian air defense stockpiles, Civilian residential complexes and public buildings, Logistics hubs and depots in central Ukraine
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10897.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to launch at least one additional, though smaller-scale, missile and/or drone wave against Ukrainian cities, prioritizing Kyiv and adjacent oblasts to exploit post-strike disruption and test air-defense saturation. The recent saturation attack, including rare Oreshnik IRBM use, fits an escalation trend toward sustained deep-strike pressure rather than one-off salvos. Russian doctrine typically follows large strikes with probing follow-ons to map defensive adaptations and exploit damaged infrastructure. However, munition stockpile limits and political blowback over high civilian casualties could restrain the scale of immediate follow-on attacks.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: 'Russia transitions to saturation, multi-vector strategic strikes on Ukraine’s capital system'
- Multiple warnings of one of the heaviest recent combined missile and drone attacks on Kyiv
- Confirmed overnight use of advanced systems (Oreshnik, Kinzhal, possibly Zircon) indicating an escalatory campaign, not a single demonstration
- Past Russian pattern of clustering strikes in waves over several days