# [7D] Expansion of Ukrainian Deep-Strike Drone and Missile Attacks on Russian Energy and Logistics Infrastructure

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T05:09:02.009Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-31T05:09:02.009Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia including Black Sea coast, Western Russia logistics corridors, Occupied Crimea
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil terminals and refineries, Rail hubs and ammunition depots, Black Sea export infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10880.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Ukraine is likely to intensify its campaign of deep strikes on Russian energy, port, and logistics infrastructure, leveraging drones and, where possible, long-range missiles to retaliate for the Kyiv attacks and sustain pressure on Russia’s war economy. Additional strikes on Black Sea and potentially Baltic or inland oil terminals, refineries, and rail junctions are plausible, with emphasis on assets linked to military supply chains. These operations will aim to maximize economic and logistical disruption while attempting to limit direct NATO entanglement. Contrarian scenario: Western partners discreetly urge Kyiv to limit strikes on Russian territory to protect Hormuz negotiations and global energy stability, slowing the tempo.

## Drivers

- Sustained emerging trend of Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign restructuring Russia’s rear-area war economy
- Recent Ukrainian claim of a strike on the Sheskharis oil terminal
- Russian escalation against Kyiv’s industrial base and civilian areas creating strong retaliatory incentives
- Progressive Ukrainian improvements in long-range UAV capabilities