# [24H] Crude Oil Risk Premium Eases Slightly on Hormuz Deal Hopes but Is Partly Supported by Ukraine–Russia Energy Risks

*Issued Sunday, May 24, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-24T05:09:02.009Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T05:09:02.009Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Black Sea region, Russia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Urals crude differential, Tanker freight rates in Black Sea and Gulf
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10876.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI are likely to trade with a slightly lower geopolitical risk premium as markets factor in a ‘largely negotiated’ US–Iran Hormuz agreement that reduces near-term closure risk. However, downside will be capped by uncertainty over actual implementation, damage to Russian energy export infrastructure such as the Sheskharis terminal, and continuing global security volatility. Urals crude discounts may widen if Sheskharis damage is confirmed and export logistics are disrupted, though this effect might only be partially priced in immediately. Contrarian scenario: A breakdown in the Iran talks or fresh attacks on Gulf shipping reverse optimism and push crude sharply higher.

## Drivers

- Warning that Hormuz deal is largely negotiated, with markets expected to price reduced disruption risk
- Report of Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal
- Trend of oil-importing economies dumping US Treasuries amid high crude, indicating existing energy stress
- General market behavior of pre-pricing anticipated de-escalation in chokepoints