# [24H] Russia Conducts Large Combined Missile and Drone Strike on Ukraine, Possibly Showcasing 'Oreshnik'

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 5:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T17:10:09.431Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T17:10:09.431Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv region, Poltava region, Broader central and eastern Ukraine, Western Russia (launch areas)
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian air defense infrastructure, Power grid and gas storage sites, Naftogaz facilities, European gas risk premia, Defense and missile-defense related equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10798.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to execute a large-scale coordinated strike package against Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and key military and energy-related infrastructure, and may include a first operational use or test of the new 'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile. The strike will probably combine Geran drones, cruise missiles, and limited hypersonic systems to stress Ukrainian air defenses and signal escalation capability to NATO. Even if 'Oreshnik' is not used or its use is limited to a single platform, Russia will frame the operation as a proof of advanced long‑range strike reach. Ukraine will respond by publicizing interception rates and damage control messaging to preserve deterrence credibility. A contrarian outcome would be a postponement due to weather, technical issues, or deliberate Kremlin decision to time the strike with political milestones, shifting the window into 48–96 hours.

## Drivers

- Multiple intelligence and Ukrainian leadership warnings of a looming large combined Russian strike involving 'Oreshnik'
- Recent Russian pattern of salvo attacks against Naftogaz and other infrastructure
- EUCOM theater assessment citing high threat and expectation of major strike
- Russian need to test and demonstrate new hypersonic capability for deterrence and domestic signaling