# [7D] PLA Conducts Multi-Day Encirclement and Blockade Rehearsal Around Taiwan Without Full Blockade Enforcement

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T11:09:45.832Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-30T11:09:45.832Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Taiwan Strait, First Island Chain, East China Sea, South China Sea
**Affected Assets**: US, Taiwanese, and Japanese naval and air forces, Commercial shipping transiting Taiwan-adjacent routes, Regional aviation routes and insurers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10775.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming seven days, China is likely to turn the current mass deployment into a multi-day exercise simulating encirclement and quasi-blockade of Taiwan, including overlapping air and naval exclusion zones and more regular forays inside Taiwan’s 12 nm waters. Live-fire drills may take place in designated areas around the island and along the First Island Chain, but Beijing will avoid explicitly declaring a blockade that would trigger immediate US-led countermeasures. Taiwan will maintain elevated alert, surge reconnaissance flights, and conduct its own exercises, while the US and allies operate nearby freedom-of-navigation and deterrence patrols. Risk of collision or weapons lock-on incidents will remain high, with any mishap potentially escalating suddenly.

## Drivers

- Multiple warnings of China massing 100+ ships, including in Taiwan’s waters
- INDOPACOM ELEVATED threat level and emerging trend of reallocation of Western defense bandwidth
- PLA historical pattern (e.g., 2022 drills) of multi-day exercises after political triggers
- Beijing’s incentive to test and normalize more aggressive postures short of war