# [24H] Increased Civilian Risk in Ukraine from Russian Retaliatory Strikes and Ongoing High-Intensity Fighting

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T11:09:45.832Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T11:09:45.832Z (22h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern and Northeastern Ukraine, Kyiv region (rear-area preparedness), Black Sea-adjacent urban centers
**Affected Assets**: Power and heat infrastructure, Civilian housing and transport networks, Humanitarian logistics corridors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10771.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Russian forces are likely to conduct additional missile, drone, or artillery attacks against Ukrainian urban areas and infrastructure, partly framed as retaliation for deep Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy and chemical facilities. Areas near current frontlines such as the Lyman direction and rear population centers like Sumy or Kharkiv face elevated risk, building on recent reports of attacks on a funeral procession and defensive preparations near Kyiv. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage will accumulate, with temporary disruptions to power, water, or transport systems in targeted locales. International humanitarian agencies will continue operations but face access and security constraints.

## Drivers

- EUCOM HIGH threat level and ongoing high-intensity combat
- Recent Russian attacks on civilians in Starobilsk and Sumy funeral procession
- Ukraine’s deep strikes on Metafrax and Novorossiysk increasing Kremlin pressure to respond
- Sustained pattern of Russia using strikes on civilian infrastructure as coercive tool