# [24H] Global Coffee Futures Show Downward Bias on Ethiopia Production Surge Headlines

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T11:09:45.832Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T11:09:45.832Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: neutral
**Affected Regions**: Ethiopia, Global coffee trading hubs (New York, London), Latin American coffee producers
**Affected Assets**: ICE arabica coffee futures, Robusta coffee futures, Coffee-exporter sovereign FX and equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10770.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

During the next 24 hours, arabica and robusta coffee futures are likely to show a mild downward bias or underperformance versus other soft commodities as markets digest reports of Ethiopia tripling output and surpassing Colombia and Indonesia. While logistics and quality constraints limit immediate physical impact, traders will begin to price a structurally looser medium-term balance. The reaction may be muted by existing weather and supply risks in other origins, but speculative positioning could shift bearish at the margin. Spot prices are unlikely to move dramatically within one day, but forward curves may flatten slightly.

## Drivers

- Alert: 'Ethiopia coffee output triples, surpassing Colombia and Indonesia'
- Coffee markets’ sensitivity to large-origin output shocks
- No simultaneous major weather disaster offsetting new supply
- Time lag between production changes and physical supply realization