# [24H] Continued high civilian harm and aid disruption in Gaza and southern Lebanon from ongoing Israeli operations

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T05:09:15.678Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T05:09:15.678Z (19h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Gaza Strip, Southern Lebanon, Northern Israel
**Affected Assets**: Hospitals and clinics, Ambulance and emergency services, UN and NGO aid operations
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10736.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, IDF strikes in central Gaza (e.g., Al-Bureij, Nuseirat) and operations in southern Lebanon, including reported attacks on medics, are likely to generate additional civilian casualties and further degrade local medical capacity. Cross-border Hezbollah–Israel exchanges will sustain insecurity for border populations and impede humanitarian access. No major ceasefire or pause initiative is expected in this time window.

## Drivers

- Recent IDF strikes on Al-Bureij and Nuseirat camps
- Reported Israeli attacks on medics in southern Lebanon
- Trend of entrenched high-intensity Israel–Hezbollah conflict