# [24H] Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure to continue, including Black Sea ports

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T05:09:15.678Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T05:09:15.678Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Novorossiysk, Russia, Southern Russia (Krasnodar, Rostov), Occupied southern and eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil export terminals, Black Sea shipping channels, Russian fuel depots and rail nodes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10728.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt additional deep-strike operations against Russian logistics hubs and oil infrastructure, with Novorossiysk and other Black Sea or southern nodes remaining high-priority targets. Recent successful attacks on Novorossiysk oil and port facilities suggest a sustained campaign aimed at degrading Russia’s refining and export capacity. Russia will likely respond with intensified air defenses and retaliatory missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Multiple Ukrainian drone strikes on Novorossiysk oil depot and port infrastructure in quick succession
- Emerging trend of systematic Ukrainian targeting of Russian refining capacity and logistics
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on routes toward Mariupol and Belgorod logistics
- Broader trend of mutual deep-strike expansion on logistics and dual-use infrastructure