# [24H] US limited air and missile strikes on Iranian military assets are more likely than not within 24 hours

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T05:09:15.678Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-24T05:09:15.678Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Iraq, Persian Gulf, Kuwait, Qatar
**Affected Assets**: US and Iranian military bases, Gulf airspace, Regional air defense networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10726.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, the US is more likely than not to launch limited precision strikes against Iranian air defense, IRGC command-and-control, or missile/drone infrastructure, likely staged from assets in Iraq, the Gulf, and possibly carrier groups. Indicators include Kuwait deactivating air defenses at US request, Iran’s highest alert status, western airspace closure, and persistent GPS jamming. The operation is likely designed to be time-bounded and target discrete capabilities rather than regime-critical infrastructure to manage escalation. However, timing could slip beyond 24 hours if last-minute diplomatic contacts gain traction or operational conditions require further shaping.

## Drivers

- US media reporting of active strike planning (CBS)
- Kuwait ordered to deactivate air defenses at US request
- Iranian forces on highest alert and western airspace closed at night
- Expanded GPS jamming across Gulf, Iraq, and Kurdistan
- US President remaining in Washington with altered schedule over Iran crisis